More Solar Testbed Data

The solar Testbed has been running for a few weeks. I decided to leave an LED light on 24 / 7 just to see things cycle. Maybe 10W for the bulb another 10W for the inverter and logger. Everything is fine until there were a few cloudy days in a row. Eventually the battery fully drained, turning off the logger (the Raspberry Pi was plugged into the inverter).

I turned off the light for a few days and the sun came out and let the battery charge a bit. Expecting sunny days I turned on a larger load, maybe 60W, just to see how this cycled. Also plugged the Raspberry Pi into the wall so logging wouldn’t stop. It seems the controller is set for something called BatteryLife which is used to conserve battery life in lead acid batteries. This keeps the load turned off until the battery gets a full charge, to prevent short cycling. But I have a lithium battery and don’t care so much. I need to change this and try again. Anyway, the light would burn for a few hours in the evening and then turn off sometime in the night, charging again in the morning. But again a string of unexpected cloudy days moved in. Not enough panels + battery to keep a 60W load going full time. Lesson here is being completely off grid might be harder than it looks.

ICE Cars Gone by 2030

Prof Ray Willis post some charts demonstrating how exponential change is happening in the automobile market. He sees a Kodak-style crushing of the businesses of existing (ICE) car makers in the very near future. This is an old story in technology. Even today’s oil industry all but wiped out the vast international business of whaling in a short time. In more recent times, the transistor all but eliminated the vacuum tube. Flat screen TVs very quickly displaced tube TVs. Mobile phones all but replaced land lines. This is how technology works, and it works more quickly than most people realize.

Tesla sold 10X more EVs than rivals in the first three quarters of 2023

I keep seeing stories in my newsfeed about how EV sales have (at least temporarily) peaked. The story goes all the “early adopters” have bought their EVs and the rest of America is still undecided. This might be true if you are taking about the 10% of EVs sold that are non-Tesla. Truth is these are not really competitive offerings. They tend to be (very) expensive and do not have an realistic charging story. By this I mean both a fast charger network as well as a country wide network that would allow long distance travel. Clearly the legacy auto makers still needs to make some serious investments. One wonders how much better Tesla would be doing if their CEO didn’t aleniate so many potential customers.

Tesla sold 10X more EVs than rivals in the first three quarters of 2023