I usually like Noahopinion, but this all seems so wrong I feel like I should say something, except I’m not even sure where to start.

I spent pretty much my entire adult life writing software. I suppose like any specialist, what I really do is much different from what people think I do.  This article also seems to have a, I dunno, romanticized view of what software is and what it has done for the world.

I would start by saying the real tech miracle is the 50 or so years of advancing semiconductor technology that made all of this happen.  But that is a complex  design and manufacturing industry that requires lots of capital and lots of highly trained experts, at nearly all levels.  It doesn’t make for good stories in the mainstream media.  I believe most people would find it all terribly boring.

Software is sort of the icing on the cake. It takes little capital and perhaps even less expertise and training to be successful.  Hence the stories of heroic startups and founders.  Yes, there was a time software was able to capture lots of value at insanely small incremental cost.  Much of this may have been due to various legal and regulatory issues than anything else.

To the nuts and bolts of what happens in a software development environment, in the Real World, it is probably difficult for many outsiders, and maybe even many insiders, to understand.  At the root, it is a human labor intensive process.  Except the labor, unlike in a factory from earlier eras, isn’t interchangable.

Many managers pretend, or perhaps even believe, that programmers are interchangable and easily replaceable, and the truth is the vast majority are.  But these are also more or less disposable workers, too.

It is a much quoted and discussed “fact” that programmer productivity varies by 10x.  Anyone who has done real software development will tell you that this is probably an underestimate.  So why not just ditch the other programmers and keep the 10xers?

As crazy as this sounds, it is difficult, particularly for non-experts, to recognize real talent.  It would be like asking why a record company doesn’t just hire musicians who all sell lots of albums.  If only it were that easy.  Same with software.  Maybe worse because even looking at previous work might not tell you what you want to know about the skills of a particular programmer.

So what to do?  The Shotgun Approach is standard, if never admitted, approach.  Hire as many programmers as you can and hope one of two pull through for The Team.

If this all sounds far fetched, here is another well known “fact” from the software world.  At least 70% of all software projects fail.  By fail, I mean abject failure, spending entire budgets (or more) and producing zero.  Nothing. Nada.  People outside of the software field may wonder how this is possible.  It’s ok.  Everyone else does too.

When offshoring became big I used to joke that it will save tons of money.  All those projects will fail more cheaply now. And it’s probably more true than funny.

So I approach this “AI is gonna replace all the programmers” with the some cynicism.  Replace the 70% of failed projects? I bet AI can fail very cheaply.  Even cheaper than teams in India.   Replace the 90% of programmers doing 10% of the work?  Again, you don’t know which ones those are, but maybe AI can figure that out for us.  But once you have trimmed away the deadwood you still have 90% of the work left to do.  Maybe AI will replace the 10x programmer.  Nobody seems to want to touch that one.

I was going to go off on the whole idea that software these days isn’t so much written as cut-and-pasted from other sources (programmers smile and nod). I’m sure AI can help with that.  But not much.  And then what happens when things don’t work?  Or inevitable bugs are found. Who gets to dive into this machine-written code and figure out what went wrong? Finding your own bugs is hard enough.  I don’t wish that on anyone.

The Fall of the Nerds

Yesterday I was wondering about the agriculture (mostly soybeans) debacle caused by Trump’s tarrifs.  This was around harvest time and China had all but ceased to buy US agriculture products.  There was some negotiations, some subsidies and then quiet.  I assumed the problem had been resolved, but it appears not.  I can’t help but wonder how many of these farmers were big Trump supporters.  From The Des Moines Register.

Farm leaders warn of ‘collapse of American agriculture’ in dire letter

Our driveway cam sometimes goes off at night. I’ve looked but never saw anything.  Lately I noticed some big paw prints in the driveway and in the back of our property.  Thought it was a neighbor’s dog on the loose.  Last night I got another video at 3am.  Looked closer and saw something moving along the retaining wall.  Zoomed in and saw this fellow.  I have a better trail cam I’ll have to set up and get a closer look.

From “Count” Victor Lustig.  Reproduced below from the wiki page. Always good to know especially in this day and age.

1. Be a patient listener (it is this, not fast talking, that gets a con man his coups).

2. Never look bored.

3. Wait for the other person to reveal any political opinions, then agree with them.

4. Let the other person reveal religious views, then have the same ones.

5. Hint at sex talk, but don’t follow it up unless the other person shows a strong interest.

6. Never discuss illness, unless some special concern is shown.

7. Never pry into a person’s personal circumstances (they’ll tell you all eventually).

8. Never boast. Just let your importance be quietly obvious. [The rule against boasting does not always apply in the United States today.]

9. Never be untidy.

10. Never get drunk.

From the Louisiana Illuminator, originally Verite News.

The looming return of Jim Crow to Louisiana, America’s second Blackest state

I really enjoyed this movie when it came out.  I remember watching it in the VHS rental era, at home on a small TV.  Time to give it another viewing.  A long, but very good look back at a movie that has quietly endured.

No Cult Favorite: BREAKING AWAY Is a Masterpiece

UFO clouds over the Sandias, got a telescope, snow day, took the tram to the top of the Sandias.

Almost a decade ago I saw the price curves for EV batteries (and wind and solar power).  It was a no-brainer.  Technology advances were going to make EVs cheaper than gas cars and they would take over.

My thinking was based on a lifetime in the tech world where such shifts happen quickly and regularly.  Anyone selling old expensive stuff will quickly be put out of business.

I figure EVs have been cheaper (and less hassle) to operate for years now.  Electricity (at home) is cheap.  I spend less than $5 to “fill up” a car that would cost many times that at a gas station. Plus I don’t have to go to gas stations.  Or get oil changes.  Or radiator flushes.  Of new mufflers and exhausts. Brakes even last longer.

EVs are cheap, clean, quiet, fast and less work than old gas cars.  So what’s taking so long?  I sometimes forget the Real World isn’t the Tech World.  Things move slower, for all sorts of reasons.  But the advantages of EVs (and solar and wind power) keep compounding.  It seems a tipping point has been reached, at least in large parts of the world.  From The Guardian.

Electric cars go mainstream as adoption surges across rich and developing nations

The Lazaroffs are family friends from our daughter’s years in College Station.  Good to see Leibel doing so well after his terrible injuries.  Watch this video.

Musical Performance with Bondi Hero Leibel Lazaroff

I started this posting a while back and have wanted to do it for months.  I felt a little funny though, like I was doing a product promotion, even if it was a very good product that I actually enjoy myself. But after the recent events in Minneapolis, what could be better than supporting the arts in that town?  Especially perhaps the only original American art from, born of America’s cultural struggles.

Below is a link to the Spotify of Steve Kenny Quintet‘s latest one, Blue Chunks.  I’ve listened to Steve Kenny in various bands (Illicit Sextet, Group 47, Steve Kenny Quartet) for decades now.  Steve is a fixture, if not a pillar, of the Twin Cities jazz scene these days.

I’m not a guy to do a music review, especially a jazz album, but I like this one enough to give it a mention.  A bit lighter than their previous albums, but it just sounds like Steve and his friends are having fun and want us in on it too.