More Solar Testbed Data

The solar Testbed has been running for a few weeks. I decided to leave an LED light on 24 / 7 just to see things cycle. Maybe 10W for the bulb another 10W for the inverter and logger. Everything is fine until there were a few cloudy days in a row. Eventually the battery fully drained, turning off the logger (the Raspberry Pi was plugged into the inverter).

I turned off the light for a few days and the sun came out and let the battery charge a bit. Expecting sunny days I turned on a larger load, maybe 60W, just to see how this cycled. Also plugged the Raspberry Pi into the wall so logging wouldn’t stop. It seems the controller is set for something called BatteryLife which is used to conserve battery life in lead acid batteries. This keeps the load turned off until the battery gets a full charge, to prevent short cycling. But I have a lithium battery and don’t care so much. I need to change this and try again. Anyway, the light would burn for a few hours in the evening and then turn off sometime in the night, charging again in the morning. But again a string of unexpected cloudy days moved in. Not enough panels + battery to keep a 60W load going full time. Lesson here is being completely off grid might be harder than it looks.

ICE Cars Gone by 2030

Prof Ray Willis post some charts demonstrating how exponential change is happening in the automobile market. He sees a Kodak-style crushing of the businesses of existing (ICE) car makers in the very near future. This is an old story in technology. Even today’s oil industry all but wiped out the vast international business of whaling in a short time. In more recent times, the transistor all but eliminated the vacuum tube. Flat screen TVs very quickly displaced tube TVs. Mobile phones all but replaced land lines. This is how technology works, and it works more quickly than most people realize.

Tesla sold 10X more EVs than rivals in the first three quarters of 2023

I keep seeing stories in my newsfeed about how EV sales have (at least temporarily) peaked. The story goes all the “early adopters” have bought their EVs and the rest of America is still undecided. This might be true if you are taking about the 10% of EVs sold that are non-Tesla. Truth is these are not really competitive offerings. They tend to be (very) expensive and do not have an realistic charging story. By this I mean both a fast charger network as well as a country wide network that would allow long distance travel. Clearly the legacy auto makers still needs to make some serious investments. One wonders how much better Tesla would be doing if their CEO didn’t aleniate so many potential customers.

Tesla sold 10X more EVs than rivals in the first three quarters of 2023

Solar on Cloudy Days

Have been running an experiment on the solar testbed. I kept a regular household LED bulb running 24 / 7 for over a week, just to watch the graphs go up and down. The light draws maybe 10W and the controller maybe another 10W. We have had a long streak of cloudy days and I noticed the light was off this morning. Checking the VRM it seems that it has been off for 12 hours. The inverter is also off. Looking at the graph it seems the battery was gradually drained, then it fell off of a cliff sometime during the night. I’m going to leave everything as is a see what happens when the sun comes back out, perhaps tomorrow.

Update: I had the Raspberry Pi which sends data to the VRM plugged into a USB port on the inverter. Very convenient except that when the battery gets low, the data logging stops. For now I have plugged the Pi into the wall so that logging continues. I suppose once the battery bottoms out there is no real point in logging. I’ll probably plug the Pi back into the inverter when the sun comes back out.

Analysis: Global CO2 emissions could peak as soon as 2023, IEA data reveals

A somewhat upbeat report from the International Energy Agency. I think these things are difficult to predict, but renewables are on a “techology curve” which means non-linear gains. This mostly means things could be even better than this report indicates. I got to see first hand how exponential change in a technology works during my decades long career in the semiconductor industry. The changes are so fast it is difficult to comprehend, even for people working in this area. It still amazes me to think the phone in my pocket is a computer that would have cost millons of dollars and taken up a warehouse a few decades ago. Something similar is happening in renewable energy. Hang on to your hats, folks.

Analysis: Global CO2 emissions could peak as soon as 2023, IEA data reveals

The Passenger

Finished the first of Cormac McCarthy’s last pair of novels. The Passenger has stuck with me, maybe because much of it takes place in New Orleans in the 1980s. I won’t give any spoilers, except maybe the biggest spoiler of all. The book asks many questions and offers no answers. But a satisfying read all the same. I read a few reviews, and only this one from The Scotsman does it justice.

Book review: The Passenger, by Cormac McCarthy

Missing Marilyn

My first job out of college was at Texas Instruments in Dallas in 1984. At first there was some shuffling around of offices to accommodate new hires like me. I spent a few weeks sharing a four man cubicle with some older employees. All in their 30s and married. Even with the close quarters I have fond memories of Mary, Tom and Marilyn. I was quickly moved over to a two man cube with a guy who was actually working in my group.

Marilyn and I hit it off, mostly on a shared love of books and reading. She was an English major in college and one of the most well read people I had ever come across. We would talk about books in the hall and sometimes even go to lunch. I also detected a bit of radicalism, something not unusual in well read people, but definitely unusual at Texas Instruments in the 80s.

I only stayed at that job, and in that office for a year. I changed groups and moved to another office a few miles down the road. I don’t think I saw much of Marilyn after that. After a year at that job, I left Texas Instruments and Dallas. I kept in touch with a few people, including Marilyn, mostly via email.

Marilyn also left T.I. and went to a supercomputer maker up the road. Then she went to Seattle to work for Microsoft. I saw her once more in person in 2001 when I went to Seattle for a job interview with a startup. I was only in Seattle briefly and wanted to meet Marilyn for dinner after work. Problem was the founders of the company also wanted to go out to dinner. I had worked with them at a previous job and figured I’d ask if my friend from Microsoft could tag along. They said ok.

I still remember that dinner. Marilyn had done well for herself, becoming one of the early Microsoft Millionaires, or at least that was what I assumed. Everyone at Microsoft in those years was making crazy amounts of money via the stock. The founders of the start up mentioned to me later how impressed they were with Marilyn. I also got an offer and left my corporate job for this small start up.

Marilyn and I stayed in touch for the next few decades. Sending each other book recommendations, news and articles, mostly fun stuff out of the mainstream. I’m sure not a week went by when we didn’t exchange notes. Most times it was several a week, sometimes several a day, always via email.

i stayed busy with kids and career, and Marilyn cashed out at Microsoft and stayed in the Seattle area. Thousand of emails went back and forth. Many years later I also retired. A few weeks ago I mentioned we were thinking of moving to New Mexico. She had a sister in Santa Fe. She said we would be seeing lots of her if we lived near Santa Fe, since she was often out visiting her sister.

Suddenly the emails stopped. I had her cell phone number, which I had never used. I sent a text message, fearing the worst but hoping it was just a problem with her email. No reply. I called but it rolled over immediately to a voicemail. I realized we never even communicated by phone. It was always just email. I realized we had no friends in common and I didn’t even know the names of her brother and sister. Or perhaps sisters. I contacted a few friends from T.I. days, but everyone I contacted had lost touch with her years ago. I looked at maps and scanned police reports from her neighborhood. Googled around but found nothing.

I kept going through old emails hoping for something. I consider Marilyn one of the great friends of my life, yet I knew nothing about her family. I knew she was divorced and had no children, but knew nothing about her siblings. We also had no friends in common, at least after all these years. It had been almost two weeks since I had heard anything and I could find no way to make contact. Then, I found an old email with a note she had forwarded from her brother. It still contained her brother’s email address. I sent him a note.

Her brother Anthony replied quickly with the news. Marilyn had a heart condition (I did not know this) and she died in her home. I was and still am devastated. I’m not sure what else to say except that she was a good friend and a huge influence on me over the years. Perhaps the smartest person I have ever met. I am going to miss our emails terribly.