Deep Learning Can’t Be Trusted

Steven Guccione

Stephen Grossberg was one of my math professors when I was an undergrad at Boston University in the early 1980s. I remember it being whispered that he was using up all sorts of expensive computer time, mostly at night, doing some sort of brain simulation. This supposedly accounted for the dark circles under his eyes and his slightly disheveled appearance. As a young engineer I was instantly intrigued. I tried to read about his Adaptive Resonance Theory, but not was mostly over my head. A few years later when I took a grad level course in Artificial Intelligence I read his ART papers as part of a class. I understood the ideas, but the math, never my strong point, was over my head. A few years ago I worked with some AI folks of the new generation and mentioned ART. They weren’t familiar with it. Glad to see it’s still around. Might have to have a go at Grossbergs new book Conscious Mind, Resonant Brain: How Each Brain Makes a Mind. I remember him being an engaging lecturer. Maybe this time around I’ll understand ART a bit better. From IEEE Spectrum.

Deep Learning Can’t Be Trusted, Brain Modelling Pioneer Says Stephen Grossberg explains why his ART model is better

J. P. Morgan Annual Energy Report

Steven Guccione

A no-nonsense report from J. P. Morgan on the energy sector, with emphasis on the transition away from fossil fuels. Since it’s all about the money, these bank folks don’t pull any punches or (at least as far as I can tell) succumb to wishful thinking in one direction or the other. Over 40 pages but worth a skim.

My takeaways: it’s going, but slower than everyone hopes. US cars really are a big deal. Electric transmission is going to need some work.

I do think distributed solar and storage is under sold here, though. Frankly, just making grid prices high (like in Hawaii) would seem to cause a rapid shift, but good luck with that one. Some other dynamics are also ignored. Maybe businesses (and people) will just move to places where renewable energy is cheap and plentiful, like people did with older forms of energy. Instead of stringing new power lines, maybe West Texas could see and industrial and population boom? Oh, the report is very harsh on the Texas power grid, but that is expected.

Future shock. Absent decarbonization shock treatment, humans will be wedded to petroleum and other fossil fuels for longer than they would like. Wind and solar power reach new heights every year but still represent just 5% of global primary energy consumption. In this year’s energy paper, we review why decarbonization is taking so long: transmission obstacles, industrial energy use, the gargantuan mineral and pipeline demands of sequestration and the slow motion EV revolution. Other topics include our oil & gas views, President Biden’s energy agenda, China, the Texas power outage and client questions on electrified shipping, sustainable aviation fuels, low energy nuclear power, hydrogen and carbon accounting.

EYE ON THE MARKET: 2021 Annual Energy Paper