Back when this pandemic started, in March 2020, I was trying to get a grip on want was going on. There was lots of noise and conflicting information. I remember talking to a neighbor and telling him my estimate was one million dead before this is all over. I didn’t mean this as an exact tally, but an engineering estimate. It was going to be more than a few thousand, more than a hundred thousand, but less than many millions. He seemed skeptical, but I still remember the hard look he gave me. I decided to document my concerns (Weighing in on COVID-19). It didn’t happen quite the way I expected, but here we are at a place that was unthinkable to most people. I also believe this is a very low estimate. It will take time to see what part of excess deaths get assigned to covid.