Tomorrow is the big election. Hard to watch anything on TV without getting saturated with ads. But I have tried to avoid reading about this one, mostly because I’m not seeing any new or interesting information. My gut feel here is about the same as it was for the 2022 midterms (Sweeping Gains). Books will be written about all of this but I will keep it simple: this will be another Post-Roe election.

In every election since the Supreme Court struck down Row vs Wade, the polls have consistently undercounted Democratic support, sometimes by shocking margins. I see lots of energy among Democrat / women voters, lots of new registrations and lots of small donor fundraising.

I am going to leave it at that. As far as numbers, a few months back in a discussion with a friend I threw out the rough estimate of 10% margin for Democrats in the popular vote and taking 40 states. All just seat of the pants with no data, mostly because the data has been completely unreliable of late. That’s my stake in the ground. We will know soon enough.