Tomorrow is the big election. Hard to watch anything on TV without getting saturated with ads. But I have tried to avoid reading about this one, mostly because I’m not seeing any new or interesting information. My gut feel here is about the same as it was for the 2022 midterms (Sweeping Gains). Books will be written about all of this but I will keep it simple: this will be another Post-Roe election.
In every election since the Supreme Court struck down Row vs Wade, the polls have consistently undercounted Democratic support, sometimes by shocking margins. I see lots of energy among Democrat / women voters, lots of new registrations and lots of small donor fundraising.
I am going to leave it at that. As far as numbers, a few months back in a discussion with a friend I threw out the rough estimate of 10% margin for Democrats in the popular vote and taking 40 states. All just seat of the pants with no data, mostly because the data has been completely unreliable of late. That’s my stake in the ground. We will know soon enough.
Steven A. Guccione 
Quite brave of you to make a prediction. I felt a lot of energy with Democrat / women voters too. I’ll do some reading when the dust settles to see if there is an explanation other than polling is dead in our increasingly low trust society. Losing Pennsylvania made no sense. You don’t like Gov. Shapiro? Send him to every funeral on the face of the planet as VP, just bring me those electoral votes! D.N.
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